The ongoing federal government shutdown has put into question whether the federal government will continue to fund the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in November. SNAP is one of the most important safety net programs in the United States, providing food assistance to 42.7 million people in an average month in 2024, at an annual cost of just over $100 billion. Policymakers often debate specific aspects of SNAP, such as the prudence of work requirements and sugary beverage restrictions, but hardly anyone has called for scrapping the program entirely.
SNAP benefits are currently paid entirely by the federal government, with funds delivered to states which then distribute the aid to families. But due to the ongoing shutdown, the Department of Agriculture has announced that they will not be able to transfer the necessary funds to the states for the month of November until the government reopens. Some have argued that the Department of Agriculture could utilize its stockpile of contingency funds to fund benefits, but the department has stated that they can only supplement already appropriated funds.
Using the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), I estimate the effect of suspending SNAP benefits in November on the number of people in poverty in the United States. The SIPP provides monthly data on families, their incomes, and participation in government programs. Relative to other frequently used surveys, it suffers from less misreporting of income and benefits. It is also the source for monthly poverty rates published by the Census Bureau.