Even Republican pollsters see a blue wave– www.dailykos.com

As polls turn further toward Democrats ahead of November’s midterm elections, one might expect Republican pollsters to try to cut against that narrative and release some data to put a damper on all this blue-wave talk. But so far, they generally aren’t doing that.

A spate of new surveys from GOP-affiliated pollsters show Democrats well positioned across key Senate races.

In Texas’ Senate contest, two Republican polls show Democratic nominee James Talarico ahead of Republican nominee Ken Paxton. One from InsiderAdvantage shows Talarico up 2 points, while another, from SoCal Strategies, has him leading Paxton by 5 points.

One InsiderAdvantage poll even shows a close race in South Carolina’s Senate race: Democratic nominee Annie Andrews trails Republican Sen. Darline Graham by just 2 points. That is remarkable for a state that President Donald Trump won in 2024 by 18 points, and where no Democratic Senate nominee has lost by less than 9.6 points since the 1990s.

Notably, the only nonpartisan poll released since the start of July, from Abacus Data, showed Graham ahead of Andrews by 13 points.

Trafalgar Group, a GOP pollster infamous for its opaque methodology, finds the Democratic Senate candidates ahead in Michigan (D+2), North Carolina (D+6), and Georgia (D+7). All of those results are roughly in line with those from nonpartisan firms, despite Trafalgar having a track record of bias toward Republican candidates.